Strait of Hormuz Closure Nears 10 Weeks, Devastating Global Aviation

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is approaching 10 weeks after Iran shut down the shipping channel in late February 2026 amid the US-Israel conflict with Iran. Jet fuel prices have surged more than 80% — and in many cases doubled — since February 28, triggering unprecedented disruption across global aviation. Airlines have cancelled 13,000 flights in May 2026 alone and slashed two million seats from May schedules. Heathrow axed 111 flights, Lufthansa cut 20,000 short-haul CityLine services over six months (expecting €1.7 billion in fuel costs this year), and Spirit Airlines permanently ceased operations on May 2. International passenger demand fell 0.6% worldwide in March. The UK government has relaxed airport slot rules to allow airlines to consolidate flights, and UK refineries have been instructed to ramp up jet fuel production. Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander stated there are no immediate jet fuel supply issues but warned of potential summer disruption, while the IEA and IATA cautioned that European fuel stockpiles could drop below critical levels by June if new supply routes are not found. Goldman Sachs identified the UK as the most exposed country to jet fuel shortages, and Virgin Atlantic has added fuel surcharges ranging from £50 to £360 on tickets.