An IMF scenario modelling a Middle East-driven oil price spike to $US130 a barrel could raise Australian fuel prices sharply and push inflation higher, economists warn.

Under an IMF scenario where oil reaches $US130 a barrel from late 2026 through early 2027, Australian petrol prices could rise 30c a litre to about $2.70 and lift inflation to as high as 4.5% by late 2026, pressuring the RBA to hike rates, economists say.